Daily Form April 24, 2008

Profit Patterns and Risk Management For Active Traders
Trade successfully without having to be right about the underlying market direction
THURSDAY APRIL 24, 2008       06:57 ET

Trading in US equities yesterday was unusually erratic with some stomach churning intraday volatility that may have delighted some traders but would also have stopped out many with some abrupt directional switches

Despite all of the fireworks the S&P 500 cash index (^SPC) produced yet another candlestick that was confined within the range of last Friday’s session. As the barrage of earnings reports continues it is not surprising that the underlying tone of the market remains nervous.

It is not only anxious central bankers and governments in the west that are doing their utmost to steer markets away from too much "downside volatility" but in similar fashion the Chinese government have backed down on a recently increased stamp tax to prevent what was beginning to look like a serious meltdown of their rather illiquid domestic exchange.

In my commentary for March 18, when the Shanghai index (^SSEC) was still above 3600, I suggested that the 3000 level looked like a realistic target and in Tuesday’s session this level was touched intraday.

It seems that the Chinese government was becoming anxious that they had been too effective previously when they had hiked a stamp tax on share transactions designed to cool surging stock prices. The reaction in today’s session must have been exactly what was wanted as an almost ten percent jump enabled the index to break above a steep downtrend that had been in place since January.


The patterns identified below should be considered as indicative of eventual price direction in forthcoming trading sessions. None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session.
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KGC  Kinross Gold Corporation (USA)  

Mentioned in Tuesday’s column Kinross Gold (KGC) has continued down since breaking below two key moving averages and would have returned more than eight percent since Tuesday’s open.

MBT  Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)  

Mobile TeleSystems (MBT) is approaching firm resistance within the context of a developing bear flag.

CCJ  Cameco Corporation (USA)  

Cameco Corporation (CCJ) could well find support at the convergence of two moving averages.

CMI  Cummins Inc.  

Cummins (CMI) is also developing a bullish flag pattern.

BA  Boeing Company The  

Last Friday Boeing Corp (BA) was cited as a classic bull flag in the making with the subdued volume during the pullback adding emphasis to the upward spike move on heavy volume that has been highlighted on the daily chart. The stock could have further to go, at least as far as the 200 day EMA, after better than expected earnings.

DOX  Amdocs Limited  

In accordance with the general qualifications for all suggestions made in this column, previous highs around $34 would seem to be a valid target for Amdocs (DOX) in coming sessions. I am always reluctant to try to call precise turning points and this is why the newsletter always carries the following notice that "None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session."