Daily Form January 14, 2009

Detecting Profitable Patterns For Active Traders
Trade successfully without having to be right about the underlying market direction
WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14, 2009       07:13 ET

The Dow Jones Transportation Index (^DJT) is one of the more disturbing for those who are insisting that the November lows were a definitive bottom for the US indices.

If the S&P 500 Cash index (^SPC) was to close below the 850 level then the bears should be sufficiently energized to take us back down into the 700’s again.

Today’s session looks like it could be pivotal for those who favor an inauguration bounce.

One thing that is becoming clearer is that this index is facing a massive challenge to make significant headway beyond the 920 level.

Yesterday I made the point during a CNBC slot that whereas in the middle of December with yields on long term Treasuries in completely uncharted waters, the usual technical analysis indicators were of very limited value. Since the re-test of the low yields that took place at the end of December there is the trace of a suggestion that from an RSI perspective the mid-December plunge in yields may have been overdone.

Having said that another rush to safety if equities are to crumble could be sudden and have commentators looking for other ways of saying "unprecedented".

Just as a note from yesterday’s trading the yield on the 30 year bond moved up while the yield on the ten year continued its recent slide.

Those who favor a short position on the long end of the Treasury spectrum may want to monitor the exchange traded fund, TBT, for entry possibilities when yields retreat further.

The euro continues to struggle and sterling had a dreadful session yesterday.

The bullish view on the Dollar index, expressed in the UUP fund, has further room to move higher but the line indicated presents an area of chart resistance.


The patterns identified below should be considered as indicative of eventual price direction in forthcoming trading sessions. None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session.
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HOT  Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide Inc  

Starwood Hotels (HOT) could be setting up for a bounce.

TK  Teekay Shipping Corp.  

I would also favor a short term bounce possibility for Teekay Shipping (TK).

USO  United States Oil ETF  

The exchange traded fund for US Oil, USO, is showing much increased volume and some indications that accumulation is taking place.