Daily Form February 11, 2009

Detecting Profitable Patterns For Active Traders
Trade successfully without having to be right about the underlying market direction
WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 11, 2009       05:09 ET

For many traders and commentators yesterday’s up close and personal session with Tim Geithner was their first real exposure to the new Treasury Secretary.

It hardly needs be said that he was not a hit.

I commented somewhat sardonically yesterday that the rescue of the US (and global) economy is in script development.

Latest news from the US Treasury is that there is an idea for a concept for a plan. Stay tuned - they’ll get back to us when they’ve got something a bit more sketched out.

Watching Mr. Geithner I was struck by the fact that the man looked like he needed someone to throw him a lifebelt - drowning in a tsunami of bad assets.

Back to basics and the 60 minute chart for the s&P 500 proxy, SPY, failed at exactly the 50% retracement level discussed in yesterday’s commentary and the move back towards the bottom of the trading range was breathtakingly fast.

The next few sessions are high risk and may see some erratic trading and for me on intraday setups the key will be to monitor the 15 minute bars for any evidence of positive or negative divergences.

The financials took it on the chin yesterday with XLF sinking back more than ten percent towards the recent lows.

This is the sector chart to have firmly on your screens in the next few sessions as the lack of clarity in the Geithner proposal has room to disappoint further. If the Treasury can come through with something more specific in a follow up announcement soon this sector could rally again very abruptly.

This is definitely a sector for intraday trading with plenty of opportunities for quick profits on the long side as short players rush to cover.