Inter-market Technical Analysis using algorithmic pattern detection
THURSDAY MARCH 4, 2010 06:45 ET
The Russell 2000 (RUT) reached back exactly to the previous 2010 high and registered an inscrutable doji star formation which leaves us with little more to go on than the fact that the path of least resistance would be a digestion of recent gains at least.
But this is a strange market with lots of cross-currents so I would not bet the ranch on either direction today ahead of the NFP number.
On rumors of further tightening ahead by the Chinese central bank the Hang Seng Index sold off quite sharply towards the close and in so doing registered a trend day with a close at exactly the 50 day EMA.
Meanwhile I take considerable comfort from the fact that many academics in finance claim that technical analysis and moving averages, fibonacci retracements etc. is all mumbo jumbo.
The chart for gold is looking more bullish again but the 1150-1160 zone will present a real hurdle.
The short term outlook for the precious metal will be closely interwoven with the near term direction of the US dollar which is looking like it may be on the verge of a correction - but a flight to safety from a really gloomy NFP report could alter that scenario.
In all - a short commentary - partly because there are not a lot of appealing trades out there today in my estimation.