Daily Form October 4, 2010

Inter-market Technical Analysis using algorithmic pattern detection

MONDAY OCTOBER 4, 2010       10:36:00 GMT

Here again is a partial list of macro targets (give or take 2%) from last week’s commentaries.

1. AUDUSD - 0.98 would be a good entry point on the short side
2. GBPUSD - anywhere between 1.59 and 1.60 should present profit opportunities on the short side
3. S&P 500 - if we can close above 1150 then I would next look for 1170 at which point I would suggest that risk/reward characteristics would keep me on the sidelines and waiting for entry points to participate in a corrective mode. A close below 1110 would be bearish.
4. USDJPY - looks as though 82 is in play again and until 88 is taken out the best strategy is to sell any sharp rallies
5. EURUSD - the currency pair which I am less clear about but where $1.3850 seems feasible, and above that I would be looking at the short side.

The euro may have made a near term top at almost exactly the $1.38 level as seen on the hourly chart below. A drop below the $1.36 level would suggest that a re-visit to $1.34 may be required before higher targets would become feasible.

Fundamentals for the euro may have been assisted by China’s announcement over the weekend that it will be coming to the assistance of troubled EZ states, specifically Greece. I wrote a piece on this at the following location .

AUD/USD registered above .9750 since Friday, and as can be seen on the hourly chart, somewhat like the chart for EUR/USD, it will be interesting to see whether buyers show up near the current level. A break of the trend-line would suggest that the Aussie dollar may struggle to regain sufficient momentum to take out the July 2008 high.

CYB continues to move higher.

LQD experienced a mini flash crash in Friday’s trading. Probably a "fat finger" trader or a mis-placed order by a single large trading firm!

The latter scenario was the finding reached by an SEC sponsored investigation about the May 6th event, and while the conclusion failed to convince me, reading the report which is available on the web does make for interesting reading.

I am reminded of the term "just a few rotten apples" or "a single lone nutcase" which is the narrative template that is often used to divert attention away from searching for more awkward causes of complex events.