Daily Form January 25, 2011

Inter-market Technical Analysis using algorithmic pattern detection

TUESDAY JANUARY 25, 2011       12:14:00 GMT

GBP/USD was whacked hard this morning after the UK government released the GDP statistics for Q4,2010 which came in at a rather alarming -0.5%. The cheerleaders were quick to point out that December was unseasonably cold so, presumably the suggestion would be that the statisticians would need to doubly seasonally adjust the numbers... I wonder if they do that in Germany and Canada (which as we all know gets really cold in the winter!) too.

Yet another disconcerting number was included in the report but does not lend itself so readily to seasonal adjustment... the UK debt, if the bailout to the banking system is included (the UK taxpayer still have sizable interests in RBC, and Lloyds) now sits at 155% of GDP. The ratings agencies will surely be persuaded towards a benign view of such numbers since, the view will be taken that RBC is merely undergoing a period of "convalescence" courtesy of the UK taxpayers and will eventually re-emerge as a robust bank...we can but hope.

Anyway the daily chart below - which includes this morning’s sell-off - suggests intermediate term targets of $1.5720 and eventually $1.5650.

Spot silver is now poised at the bottom of the daily cloud formation and touched the $26.50 level in trading during the last few hours. The intermediate term target is illustrated on the chart.

AUD/USD is providing some good scalping opportunities at present and as can be seen from the hourly chart below the extended bout of range trading is moving the price further into the apex of a distinct triangular formation.

My current bias is towards expecting a breakout to the downside with a target of around .9870 but I am prepared to adjust that bias if the top of the downward sloping trend-line is decisively violated. In the interim fading/reversing at the top or bottom of the range has worked well during the last 24 hours.

The Shanghai exchange closed down again in trading on Tuesday and reached a new multi-period intraday low. However the dotted line shows that the current price zone has been an area of previous support and the expectation is that we could see another pullback higher before the waterfall pattern resumes.