Daily Form February 11, 2011

Inter-market Technical Analysis using algorithmic pattern detection

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 11, 2011       12:25:00 GMT

The events last evening in Cairo are providing a certain uneasiness in European trading Friday morning. The possibility of a power vacuum in Egypt in coming months raises a lot of questions about the path that Egypt will take, the repercussions in other neighboring states (esp. Saudi Arabia) and the strategic interests of the USA in the region.

Watching the speech by Mubarak last night one could only wonder how out of touch the man is with the popular movement taking place. As someone joked on Twitter he clearly didn’t run his speech by a focus group for feedback before giving it.

The breaking story also caused a last minute re-shuffling of CNBC Europe’s program schedule yesterday afternoon hence my absence from the usual slot.

The charts today are all rather simple and hopefully most speak for themselves. Continuing with a recent theme the focus is on divergences - both positive and negative - between price action and money flow.

The chart below for the financial services sector fund, XLF, suggests that this ETF would not be on my list of long candidates.

CMF, a play on municipal debt for California, is showing positive MFI divergences and playing for a rebound will be on my watch list for the next few sessions.

GBP/USD has broken below the key $1.60 level and I have indicated a near term target for possible testing in the vicinity of $1.5840. The suggestion comes with my normal qualification that this FX pair can be quite volatile and scalping quick profits (and taking quick losses) is the recommended course.

Despite the fact that many ETF’s for newer equity markets are not looking technically appealing the chart below for EZA, a play on the MSCI South African index, does look attractive on the long side.


The patterns identified below should be considered as indicative of eventual price direction in forthcoming trading sessions.
None of these setups should be seen as specifically opportune for the current trading session.
For a more comprehensive listing of price formations detected by our pattern recognition algorithms please visit TradeWithForm

F  Ford Motor Company  

I would expect Ford to eventually succumb to a further bout of selling in the next few sessions.

NOK  Nokia Corporation (ADR)  

Nokia is getting crunched in European trading this morning and a near term target would be the dotted line drawn on the chart. This is now a troubled company which has lost its way and any significant rallies should be seen as selling opportunities.

For many years the company dominated in the mobile handset field but remained wedded to its own proprietary operating system - Symbian. The decision to partner with Microsoft and use its mobile platform/OS shows how fundamentally flawed the management strategy has been.